AYR GOLD CUP 2013

Today we use the Proform Software to take a look at the cavalry charge that is the Ayr Gold Cup 2013 and in fact we have 8 things you didn't know about the Ayr Gold Cup 2013 rather than our usual 5.  

DSLR

8 of the last 16 winners had run within the last 2 weeks but not in the last 7 days.  So they had a little rest on the back of a prep run a week before the race.  This is from 130 runners over that period and is 93% better than expectations. This year the qualifiers running off a 8 to 14 day break are :- Hawkeyethenoo, Hoof It, Mass Rally, Humidor, Lightning Cloud, Hamza, Dubawi Sound, Gabriel's Lad, Nocturn, Hasopop.  

ODDS

37 runners have been sent off at 9/1 or lower in the last 16 renewals and none of them have won. Also 235 runners have been sent off at over 20/1 with only 2 winners whereas the expected would be nearly 4.  This is 49% below expectations. The range of 10/1 to 20/1 has provided the majority of the winners with 14 from 157 runners over that 16 year period.  This 81% above expectations. Qualifiers :- Check the markets to see if your fancy is in the 10/1 to 20/1 bracket.  

DSLR LAST TIME OUT

14 of the last 16 winners had their penultimate run within a 3 week period.  This is 61% above expectations and points to the robustness of sprinters taking 2 or 3 runs in a short period without losing form and leads into our next statistic. Qualifiers running today are :- Regal Parade, Hoof It, Louis The Pious, Lightning Cloud, Spinatrix, Hamza, Highland Colori, Khubala, Baccarat, Jack Dexter, Nocturn, Hasopop, Heaven's Guest, Tropics.  

ROBUSTNESS

Horses that have had less then 3 runs in the last 3 months have won just 2 of the last 16 Ayr Gold Cups from 112 runners.  This is 56% below expectations. However, horses who have 3 or more times before contesting the Ayr Gold Cup have won 14 of the last 16 renewals from 317 runners, which is 26% above expectations. Qualifiers today are :- Regal Parade, Hawkeyethenoo, Hoof It, Mass Rally, Our Jonathan, Majestic Myles, Louis The Pious, Lightning Cloud, Spinatrix, Hamza, Dubawi Sound, Highland Colori, Bogart, Duke Of Firenze, Gabriel's Lad, Khubala, Baccarat, Nocturn, Heaven's Guest, Tropics, Red Dubawi.  

LAST TIME OUT COURSE

If a horse contesting the Ayr Gold Cup ran at either Doncaster, Goodwood, Haydock or Ripon last time out then they run 43% better than expectations, with 13 of the last 16 winners. However in contrast if they have run at anywhere else last time out they run 54% worse than expectations. Runners today coming from a run at Doncaster, Goodwood, Haydock or Ripon are :- Hawkeyethenoo, Captain Ramius, Hoof It, Our Jonathan, Louis The Pious, Spinatrix, Hamza, Dubawi Sound, Bogart, Duke Of Firenze, Baccarat, Heaven's Guest.  

PLACED LAST TIME OUT

8 of the last 16 winners were placed last time out, which is 63% better than expectations. Today's runners which were placed last time out are :- Hoof It, Spinatrix, Gabriel's Lad, Hasopop.  

DISTANCE LAST TIME OUT

Horses stepping up in trip from 5f to 6f have a poor record of 3 winners from 144 runners with a below expectation percentage of 39%. However if last time out the ran at 6f+ then they have a positive expectation of 22% with 12 winners from 283 runners over the last 16 years. This years runners that ran at 6f+ last time out are :- Regal Parade, Hawkeyethenoo, Captain Ramius, Hoof It, Mass Rally, Louis The Pious, Lightning Cloud, Spinatrix, Hamza, Dubawi Sound, Highland Colori, Gabriel's Lad, Khubala, Baccarat, Jack Dexter, Nocturn, Hasopop, Heaven's Guest, Tropics.  

HANDICAP LAST TIME OUT

Runners which did not run in a handicap on their last run have performed 32% below expectations, whereas if they did run in a handicap last time out they have performed 16% above expectations. Last time out handicap runners are :- Regal Parade, Captain Ramius, Our Jonathan, Majestic Myles, Louis The Pious, Joe Eile, Spinatrix, Dubawi Sound, Bogart, Gabriel's Lad, Baccarat, Hasopop, Heaven's Guest, Red Dubawi.  

SUMMARY

The following horses qualified on 1 or more than trends above not including the odds range of 10/1 to 20/1, which you will need to check yourself.  

Hoof It	6
Spinatrix	6
Baccarat	5
Dubawi Sound	5
Gabriel's Lad	5
Hamza	5
Hasopop	5
Heaven's Guest	5
Louis The Pious	5
Hawkeyethenoo	4
Lightning Cloud	4
Nocturn	4
Regal Parade	4
Bogart	3
Captain Ramius	3
Highland Colori	3
Khubala	3
Mass Rally	3
Our Jonathan	3
Tropics	3
Duke Of Firenze	2
Jack Dexter	2
Majestic Myles	2
Red Dubawi	2