Triumph Hurdle

At the 2012 Festival 9 horses returned after running in the 2011 Triumph. None of them won but 3 did place at 16/1, 20/1 and 33/1, so it is worth keeping an eye on runners from last years Triumph running in this years Festival races. POSTIVES:

• Last time out winners are 11 from 15, which is 37% better than expected.
• 11 of the 15 had a run in the last 42 days.
• 10 of the 15 could be found in the first four in the betting.
• 7 of the 15 raced in a Class 1 race last time out from just 93 runners, which is 30% better than expected.

NEGATIVES:

• Horse returning after a break of more than 42 days have only won 2 of the last 15 renewals from 89 runners, which is 51% lower than expectations.
• Held up runners have won 3 from 15 from 163 runners, 43% below the norm.

TREND FITTERS: Our Conor qualifies on all four postives and of those outside the top 3 in the betting Stocktons Wing qualifies on three of the four trends and was under 3 lengths behind Our Conor back in December. Stocktons Wing is overpriced at 20/1. . Our Conor (Win) Stocktons Wing (E/Way)  

 

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County Hurdle

Loads of trends in the County and two points to note. Last years renewal produced 7 winners and 4 placed horses on their next start and the year before produced a winner at 20/1 and a placed horse at 6/1 at the following years Festival from just 10 runners. A race to keep tabs o for future winners. POSTIVES:

• A run at either Newbury, Cheltenham or Leopardstown last time out is a strong positive with 10 of the last 15 winners from 126 runners, which is 82% higher than expected.
• 5 year olds have won 8 of the last 15 renewals from just 89 runners, that's 53% above expectations.
• Racing in a Class 2 or lower last time out equates to 47% above the norm with 10 winners.
• Hold up horses have won 13 of the last 15 renewals, 38% better than expected.
• The top 4 in the betting have won 9 of the 15.
• Irish Breds have won 8 from 15.
• Horses finishing 1st or 2nd last time out have won 7 of the last 15 renewals.

NEGATIVES:

• Only 2 winners from 155 have won running up with the pace in the County, that's 69% less than expected.
• Horses aged 6+ have won 7 races but from 295 runners, which is 34% worse than expected.
• 5 horses won after running in a Class 1 last time out from 157 runners, which equates to 32% lower than expectations.

TREND FITTERS: We have three qualifiers all worth a bet. They all qualify on 5 of the 7 trends. . Ifandbutwhynot (Win) Ranjaan (Win) Discoteca (E/Way)    

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Albert Bartlett

The 2011 Albert Bartlett produced 2 winners and 1 placed horse from 11 runners at the 2012 Festival. The winners were Bob's Worth at 9/2 and Teaforthree at 5/1, so worth looking back at last years race to see what is declared this time around. POSTIVES:

• Not many strong valid trends with just 8 renewals so far.
• All 8 winners raced in a Class 1 race last time out, that's from just 60 runners and equates to 54% better than expected.
• The top 5 in the betting have won 7 of the 8 renewals.
• 7 of the 8 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out.

TREND FITTERS: Just the two qualifiers in At Fishers Cross and Utopie Des Bordes. The At Fishers Cross was franked in fine style by Neptune winner The New One. . At Fishers Cross (Win) Utopie Des Bordes (Win)      

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Cheltenham Gold Cup

The Gold Cup is the pinnacle of the Festival and not surprisingly it takes a lot out of a horse to run in it, so you won't be surprised to learn that of the 14 runners in the 2011 Gold Cup not one of them went on to win on their next start and only 2 placed. POSTIVES:

• 13 of the winners in the last 15 renewals had a previous run at a past Festival, which is 9% better than expected and 10 winners had either won or placed in a past Festival race from 103 runners, that's 7% better than expected. Neither of those are massively strong statistics since past festival form horses are over bet, but it can't be ignored when narrowing the field.
• 8 of the last 15 ran in a Grade 1 race last time out from just 51 runners, which is 49% better than expected.
• Irish Breds have won 12 of the 15, 34% better than expected.
• If we add in Grade 2 last time out then 13 of the 15 ran in a Grade 1 or 2 last time out, 30% more than expected.
• 12 of the last 15 were in the top 3 in the betting.
• 10 of the last 15 ran at exactly 3 miles last time out.
• Horses winning last time out won 8 of the last 15 renewals.

TREND FITTERS: The top trends topper is Sir Des Champs, and we have very keen on this one. Long Run comes very close on trends in second and would be joint top if in the 1st three in the betting, which in fact could happen. . Sir Des Champs (Win) Long Run (Saver)  

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Foxhunter Chase

Last years Foxhunter worked out very well with 5 runners winning on their next start which was 44% above expectations. POSTIVES:

• Horse who ran within the last 42 days have won 10 of the 15 renewals, 28% more than expected.
• It pays to be up with the pace with leaders or prominent runners winning 9 of the 15 renewals from 140 runners, 26% better than the norm.
• Aged 10 or younger accounts for 13 of the 15 winners, which is 25% above expectations.
• Don't discount outsiders with 8 of the last 15 starting at 10/1 or higher.

NEGATIVES:

• Horses which did not win last time out have won just 4 of the last 15 renewals, 19% worse than expectations.
• Horses aged 11 or older have won just 2 renewals from 126 runners, which is 59% lower than expected.
• Only 2 winners from 119 runners hadn't had a run in the last 42 days, which is also 59% lower than expected.

TREND FITTERS: We have two qualifiers who make it on all points. Benedictus is a massive price so a very small e/way on that one. Creevytennant is also a big price but that does not put us off a e/way bet. The next best is Tricky Trickster who has past Festival winning form and can't be ignored. . Tricky Trickster (Win) Creevytennant (e/way) Benedictus (small e/way)    

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Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

With just 4 renewals of the Martin Pipe we have nothing solid trends wise to go on.  

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Johnny Henderson Grand Annual

The final race for 2013, I hope you have all had a fantastic and profitable Festival. POSTIVES:

• 10 of the last 15 renewals were won by a horse who had previously contested a race at a past Festival, which is 22% better than expectations.
• 8 of the 15 winners from just 98 runners ran in a non handicap last time out, that's 33% higher than expected.
• 11 of the 15 had a recent run, within the last 42 days, which is 22% better than the norm.
• The top 3 in the betting accounted for 8 of the 15 from 52 runners, 21% higher than expectations.
• French Breds won 6 from 15, 17% higher than expected.
• Irish Breds won 6 from 15, 14% higher than expected.
• 11 of the last 15 ran in a Class 1 or 2 race last time out.
• Horse rated 145 or lower have won all 15 renewals

NEGATIVES:

• Horses coming off a break of more than 42 days have won only 4 of the 15 renewals from 103 runners, 32% lower than the norm.
• 7 winners from 194 ran in a handicap last time out but that is 23% lower than expectations.
• 4 winners ran in a Class 3 or worse last time out, which is 21% lower than expected.

TREND FITTERS: Alderwood and Benefficient come clear top on trends. Next best are Gus Macrae and His Excellency. Benefficent and His Excellency have both run at this Festival winning and coming 3rd and both are a little high in the weight here so we will overlook them and stick with the other two. . Alderwood (Win) Gus Macrae (E/Way)