By Ben Aitken

NOTE: You can click on any image to view in a new window, and you can download a PDF copy of this article on this link

Introduction

One more horse to follow before the close of the National Hunt season, as always, the horse in focus has been sourced during my weekly deep dive into the Proform Speed Figures...

If you missed the previous ‘To Follow’ articles you can get them HERE>>>

And if you are yet to read my main article on Proform Speed Figures you can get that HERE>>>

Today I’m heading back to last weekend’s Ayr Scottish National Day card and the Class 1 Scotty Brand Handicap Chase, that was run on Saturday 20^th April (1:15 race)...

Horse to follow: TRAPRAIN LAW (Miss L Russell)

As always let’s start with looking at how the race panned out on the Proform Speed Figure front...

The Speed Class Par figure for this race was 78 and as you can see from the above image both the winner – TOMMY’S OSCAR – and the runner-up – TRAPRAIN LAW – posted a figure above par, and the third horse – SANS BRUIT – posted a figure just a shade below par...

The other three runners were beaten by a wide margin come the line but there are excuses for all of them (PERSIAN TIME is best right-handed, UNCLE PHIL is better off shorter breaks and PEMBROKE would benefit for a step back down to Class 2 level) and their efforts don’t devalue the form any...

TOMMY’S OSCAR had dropped backed to his last winning mark here and he took full advantage of that, stamping his class after the last and posting the (joint) third best Proform Speed Figure of his career. He had been given some tough assignments this season but the figures he had posted were, in the main, solid and it was no real surprise to see him get the job done in this contest. He’s likely to remain a solid proposition in similar races to those he has contested this term for at least one more season (he will be 9 going on 10 in the 2024/25 season). He’s a hardened and exposed performer so not one that needs flagged up us ‘one to follow’...

Runner-up TRAPRAIN LAW, however, is definitely a horse of interest and there was plenty to like about this effort from the 6-Y-O, who was having only the fifth chasing start of his career.

His overall form/profile now looks as follows...

TRAPRAIN LAW’s runner-up effort on Saturday was the second best Proform Speed Figure of his career and the 2lb rise he received from the handicapper for the run (138 to 140) still leaves him with plenty room for improvement.

Added to the ‘above par Speed Figure’ he posted, there was something else that marked him out to me as a horse to keep on the radar... and that was the fact that he didn’t manage to get to the lead and pull the field along off the front end in his favoured front-running style, but STILL managed to post a figure above par for the level and just a shade below his personal best.

If you split his form figures by running style/how he ran in the race, you see the following...

Front-Ran (L) = 212113311 (5/9, 4p)

Close-to-Pace (P)/Held-Up (H) = 452 (0/3, 1p)

...all of his wins coming when he’s able to front-run and set his own fractions out front, and he’s yet to win in three starts when he’s NOT able to front-run... on Saturday SANS BRUIT took the early lead and held front-rank until 3 from home, with TRAPRAIN LAW having to sit in second and track the pace that was being set by the Paul Nicholls horse.

Given how the race panned out I’d be inclined to mark the effort of Lucinda Russell’s 6-Y-O up a few pounds, again heightening my belief that his 2lb rise leaves him with plenty room for manoeuvre.

The one further positive for the horse is that he is the regular mount of Lucinda Russell’s conditional jockey PATRICK WADGE, a jockey who the stats tell us is an excellent judge of pace off the front end...

The following are the young jockey’s overall stats split by running style...

An impressive 37% Win S/R for Patrick Wadge on front-runners, with a very healthy +£52.38 profit to BFSP... expected winners sits at 15 meaning he’s strikes 80% above market expectation when he goes from the front...

The jockeys’ stats improve further when you look at his record when he front-runs on a Lucinda Russell trained Chaser...

A 48% Win S/R when going from the front on a Lucinda Russell trained chaser, TRAPRAIN LAW obviously making up a percentage of those stats... the profits, naturally, are lesser, although if you were able to determine he was likely to be leading the race and were able to make use of earlier prices, the profits would have been boosted plenty...

The stats for when Partick Wadge rides a Lucinda Russell chaser from the hold-up position are also interesting... but that’s probably another discussion for another day...

The main aspect to take from all this is that...

• TRAPRAIN LAW has strong form figures when able to lead
• PATRICK WADGE holds some strong and profitable stats when riding front-runners (and he significantly outperforms market expectation)
• PATRICK WADGE & LUCINDA RUSSELL have a high strike-rate when teaming up with front-running chasers (and from limited numbers outperform market expectation)

Add into those three points the main theme of this article; TRAPRAIN LAW posted an eye-catching speed figure (and one that was above par for the level) in a race that didn’t play to his strengths... and it’s not hard to conclude that the 6-Y-O gelding is one to keep on the radar going forward...

He’ll likely be put away for the season now, but Lucinda Russell does have a good record with placing her higher rated chasers in the early part of a campaign...

Lucinda Russell | 6yo-7yo’s rated 127+ | Chases in October and November

(since 2016) 9/19 | 47% S/R | +£32.84 BFLSP – W&P 11/19 | 58% S/R

82% above expectation

...and worth noting that TRAPRAIN LAW wouldn’t be one to give up on if he failed to win on seasonal debut next term, he’s been beaten on both previous seasonal debut efforts to date so he may be one that need a run to get going (for all that is obviously very limited evidence to be working with right now)...

 

 

By Ben Aitken

Horse Racing analyst and website owner at narrowingthefield.co.uk

Race Trends analysis and horse profiling, alongside personally researched systems and angles are my preferred analysis and betting methods

Proform user for over 10-years

You can find more racing analysis over on my own website www.narrowingthefield.co.uk