By Ben Aitken

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Introduction

Horses to Follow time, each of the horses in these articles being found during my weekly mine into the Proform Speed Figures...

If you missed the previous ‘To Follow’ articles you can get them HERE>>>

And if you are yet to read my main article on Proform Speed Figures you can get that HERE>>>

Today I’m heading back to last weekend’s Haydock card and the Class 2 Challengers Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle, that was run on Sunday 30^th of March (2:40 race)...

Horse to follow: DOUGHMORE BAY (E Lavelle)

As always let’s start with looking at how the race panned out on the Proform Speed Figure front...

 

The Speed Class Par for this contest was 74 and as you can see from the above, the first 2 home – INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN & GIT MAKER... posted a Proform Speed Figure above par for the level.

The Speed Class Par figure for this race was 72 and as you can see from the above, the first seven home ALL ran to a figure above this level, suggesting there’s a solid chance of this contest proving strong form to keep on the radar...

The Olly Murphy trained SECRET TRIX dug deep after the last to land the spoils here, posting a marginal Proform Speed Figure career best in the process (ran to a figure of 78 here, his previous best was 77). This win was the fifth Handicap Hurdle victory of his career so it’s debatable how much more improvement he’ll have in him, for all this was his first start wearing a tongue-tie and that could yet bring a bit more improvement from the 7yo. He is, however, verging on the exposed side and he’s one I’d be happy to view on a race-by-race basis, rather than a horse to put up as ‘one to follow’...

Runner up DOUGHMORE BAY is, however, a horse that can still be classed as unexposed, this being only his fifth start over Hurdles and only his third run in Handicap company, and given he posted the same figure as the winner it’s not hard to mark him out as the one take from this race.

DOUGHMORE BAY’S previous best figure prior to this run was a 67, which he posted on seasonal debut at Worcester back in October. He then ran in a Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle at the November Cheltenham meeting, a race where he made a blunder at the fifth flight which resulted in him losing his prominent racing position, before being badly hampered by a faller two out and blowing any hope he had of fighting out a serious finish. Off the back of that Cheltenham run I stuck a note against his name stating... ‘will be interesting when they go chasing with him (bred to be a chaser)’...

He was then off the track for 73-days, appearing next in a Class 3 at Plumpton at the end of January, a race where they held him up out the back and he didn’t really start to show anything until the winner had flown, coming home a never nearer 2.3L second. He posted a Proform Speed Figure of 55 that day, which was a hefty 11 points below the Speed Class Par standard for the level and at the time I was a shade concerned with the effort, as I had hoped he was capable of plenty better than that mid-50’s Speed Figure. With hindsight, however, I suspect the Plumpton run was simply an outing to keep him ticking over for this assignment, and the figure of 78 he posted here is a much stronger reflection of his abilities than the Plumpton figure of 55 he posted.   

Off the back of Saturday’s Haydock second he was raised to a handicap mark of 132 (up 5lbs), which is a mark I’d be more than hopeful Doughmore Bay is capable of defying when switched to the larger obstacles.

Connections may be tempted to have another roll of the dice in a Handicap Hurdle before this campaign is out, although all being well he’ll be put away for the season and they can start plotting a chasing route for him in the 2024/25 season, where he’ll be starting life off a mark (OR 132) that should be more than workable, with his most recent Proform Speed Figure confirming him as a horse with plenty of potential.

Emma Lavelle can get her chasers ready to fire on chase debut, especially when that debut comes in handicap company, with the following set of stats well worth keeping in mind...

 

(Since 2015) Emma Lavelle | 6yo-8yo’s making chasing debut in a Class 3 or Class 4 Handicap Chase | August – December

 

I’d be very confident that Doughmore Bay is a horse that will go on to bigger and better things when sent chasing, and my confidence was boosted further by him posting a Proform Speed Figure just shy of 80 on his most recent Hurdle run at Haydock...

 

By Ben Aitken

Horse Racing analyst and website owner at www.narrowingthefield.co.uk

Race Trends analysis and horse profiling alongside personally researched systems and angles are my preferred analysis and betting methods

Proform user for over 10-years