By Andrew Mount

NOTE: You can click on any image to view in a new window and you can download a PDF copy of this article on this link

 

Introduction
With the 2024 Cheltenham festival just around the corner, I want to take a look at a few punting systems using the power of the Proform software that might help us to win a few quid next month. I’m going to take a detail look at specific races in due course but first, a few general pointers…

First up is the system that could kill the Cheltenham festival preview night gravy train dead…

 

BACK EVERY HORSE IN EVERY RACE AT BETFAIR SP

Sounds daft, doesn’t it? But had we backed every runner in every race at Betfair SP at the past five Cheltenham festivals we’d have made a profit of £376.19 to a £1 level stake at SP (+16.91% on turnover, after 2% commission). Here’s the breakdown year-by-year…

…I’m not suggesting that we adopt this method but it’s fascinating to note that however uncompetitive jumps racing seems to be in recent years, there will always be a shock or two at the Cheltenham festival.

 

TRAINERS
PAUL NOLAN is rarely represented in handicaps at the Cheltenham festival but his 21 runners this century have produced two winners (20-1 and 12-1) for a profit of £13.00 to a £1 level stake at SP as well as ten other top-seven finishes (at odds of 100-1, 66-1, 33-1, 25-1, 22-1, 11-1, 8-1, 8-1, 7-1 and 11-2). With many bookmakers offering enhanced place terms, it could pay to back his handicap runners each-way. He has PALOMAN (40-1) and TRANQUIL SEA (20-1) in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle as well as DAILY PRESENT (16-1) in the Kim Muir.

ALAN KING’s hurdlers are just one from 133 at the Cheltenham festival since 2009 and backing them blind would have returned a loss of £99.00 to a £1 level stale at SP. The expected numbers of winners based on their prices was 6.47 giving an actual over expected ratio of 0.15. The non-handicappers were 0-68 in this period…

 

EASY WINNERS OVER HURDLES IN IRELAND

The Proform software allows us to base systems on the close-up comments given to a horse on its latest start and one simple system is to look for those who scored in Ireland last time out when described as winning ‘easily’ or ‘comfortably’. This information can be entered in the LTO (last time out) HORSE IN RUNNING COMMENT SEARCH area in the LTO HORSE tab in the Proform system builder…

Since the 2017 Cheltenham festival, those who won ‘easily’ or ‘comfortably’ over hurdles in Ireland in their prep race had a 19 from 65 record at festival for a very healthy profit…

 

WIND OPERATIONS

Wind ops have only had to be declared since the 2018 Cheltenham festival, but a few interesting patterns have emerged, especially with regard to trainers.

Dan Skelton’s five wind-op recipients who ran at the Cheltenham festival produced a 12-1 winner in the shape of Ch’tibello in the 2019 County Hurdle as well as a 25-1 fourth and 16-1 fifth.

Backing all Cheltenham festival handicappers who had undergone wind surgery since their latest start would have found three winners from 39 runners for a profit of £12.00.

Obviously, this is a small sample size and a low strike-rate but it’s worth giving such runners a second look, especially when it comes to the Placepot as the beaten horses included a 16-1 runner-up as well as a 50-1 third.

 

by Andrew Mount

Racing pundit/journalists with daily tipping/analysis columns for GG.co.uk, SportsLens.com and Tote.co.uk. I also write a weekly column for Racing & Football Outlook.

Past lives include racecourse bookmaker, author of the Trend Horses books for Raceform, full-time pro punter and racehorse owner.