By Ben Aitken

NOTE: You can click on any image to view in a new window, and you can download a PDF copy of this article on this link

Introduction

Time for the next of my ‘Horses to Follow’ posts, uncovered during my usual deep dig through the Proform Speed Figures...

If you missed the previous ‘To Follow’ articles you can get them HERE>>>

And if you are yet to read my main article on Proform Speed Figures you can get that HERE>>>

Today I’m heading to Kempton and the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase that was run on Saturday 24^th of February (2:27 race)...

Horse to follow: PEMBROKE (D Skelton)

As always let’s start with looking at how the race panned out on the Proform Speed Figure front...

 

The Speed Class Par figure for this contest was 78 and as you can see from the above image the first two home – BLOW YOUR WAD & TAHMURAS... both posted a Proform Speed Figure comfortably above par for the level... indeed both horses posted career best Proform Speed Figures in this race, suggesting both are two high-class horses firmly on the up and yet to reach their peak. That is an assessment that plenty will have made anyway, but I always like such things to be backed up by the figures, and that is exactly what the Proform Speed Figures did on this occasion.

Third placed finisher, the Dan Skelton trained PEMBROKE, was comfortably seen off come the line, with the 7yo strolling home 18L behind the runner-up. Given that the front two battled out a tight finish all the way to the line it’s easy to overlook PEMBROKE and just mark him down as being ‘outclassed’... which in fairness, he probably was... but this is one of the areas where I find the Proform Speed Figures invaluable... despite finishing well-beaten come the line he still banged in a Proform Speed Figure of 77, a figure just 1-point below the Speed Class Par for the level, again suggesting that the front two are two high-class animals and also suggesting that PEMBROKE has run plenty better than the bare form suggests.

If you look back at the winners of the Pendil Chase since 2000 you will see that the figure posted by BLOW YOUR WAD would have been good enough to win all but two of the renewals (the 2020 renewal won by WHO DARES WINS and the 2005 renewal won by LIMERICK BOY)...

Again, further evidence that PEMBROKE has likely just bumped into two very high-class opponents. Furthermore, the figure posted by the Skelton horse would have been good enough to win roughly half of the renewals of the Pendil Chase since 2000...

PEMBROKE doesn’t look like he’s quite up to G1/G2 level in all fairness and he’s likely one for handicaps, with that in mind he’s worth keeping on the radar for a handicap assignment in the coming weeks, especially when meeting with conditions somewhere along the lines of...

NOT G1/G2 level | November to April | NOT Undulating/Very Undulating tracks

...where he holds a form line of...

...11111 (5/5 – all 5 career wins)...

...although I’d still be relatively flexible with him on the conditions front for now.

He’s posted Proform Speed Figures in the 70’s on his last three starts now and we know from his hurdle starts last season that he can run to a mark in the low to middle 80’s...

...and looking at the above snapshot of his career form we can also see that he’s able to act on a range of different going descriptions, meaning he likely won’t mind if we get a wet or dry next couple of months.

PEMBROKE will probably have been dismissed by plenty after his Pendil effort, but the Proform Speed Figures tell a different story and fully suggest he didn’t run all that bad at all in third place, far from it indeed, he actually ran only a fraction below par for the level, and once his attentions are switched to handicap company I’d be confident he can take full advantage of his current mark of OR 143...

 

By Ben Aitken

Horse Racing analyst and website owner at www.narrowingthefield.co.uk

Race Trends analysis and horse profiling alongside personally researched systems and angles are my preferred analysis and betting methods

Proform user for over 10-years