Can Elm fell rivals in the Racing Post Trophy

October 25th, 2014

The highlight of the two-day meeting at Doncaster, the Racing Post Trophy is the final group race of the Flat season.

Using the research features within Proform, we reviewed historical data for this race from 1997 and our analysis has identified the following trends for this Group 1 event open to two-year-old colts and fillies.

The crowd get its right more often than not.

10 winners were favourites, 60% better than expected. Since 2006, only 1 winner of the Racing Post Trophy was priced at double figure odds (Authorized, 25/1).

Qualifiers: Elm Park

Front runners get carried out on their shields.

19 horses with a “Led” running style have taken their chances in this race and while they have hit the cross bar on three occasion, the stats suggest the manner of how this race unfolds is a disadvantage to front runners.

Qualifiers: Elm Park

Aiden O’Brien benefit gig.

The Ballydoyle stable have won this race on 7 occasions from a population of 37 runners. Although a strategy of betting each and every horse would have resulted in a small loss, any horses saddled by Aiden O’Brien in this race should be considered for any shortlist.

Qualifiers: Aloft, Jacobean

High profile courses for Racing Post Trophy horses.

Horses that ran at Newmarket in their prior race have won the Racing Post Trophy on four occasions. Horses with recent runs at the Curragh have notched up three wins, two wins for horses that ran at Doncaster last time out.

Qualifiers: Elm Park, Restorer, Aloft, Jacobean

Recent winners win again.

Given its Group 1 status and prize fund, Racing Post entrants would have already proven that they are “up to the job” when racing at Group level. With 10 Racing Post Trophy winners notching up triumphs in their preceding race, whomever emerges as the victor in this year’s renewal will be made of “The Right Stuff”

Qualifiers: Aloft, Celestial Path, Elm Park, Snoano