For those seeking “winners” look no further than a simple approach of backing the favourite in every race!

As shown in the table above, so called “favourite backers” can get their kicks and cash their betting slips almost once in every three races (32.87% strike rate).

The table above just focuses on the record of favourites and doesn’t include joint or co-favourites but happy days :)

Unfortunately, if you look at the figure in the Betfair SP ROI column, this strategy comes at a cost! and you would be nearly 3% down on your money during this period of time :(

But hang on a minute!

£68171 invested and you only lose £1926.54 just by backing the jolly at Betfair SP? No form study, no inside info etc.

Surely there must be something we can do to turn the odds in our favour if you just back the favourite?

 

All favourites are not created equal!

Using the Proform System Builder we can delve into the data to find that if we want to lessen the pain of losses, the record of favourites are not equal across the different forms and categories of racing:

Now remember, the table above includes handicap and non-handicap races, but clearly if you back the favourite in All Weather races you be deprived of less of your money, and there is scope for improvement as we shall see using Hurdle Races as an example:

Again using the Proform System Builder, we can look at the record of favourites in the different Hurdle classifications raced in the last 5 years.

If we take into account sample size, backing the favourite in Novice Hurdles gives you a 1.45% ROI for your £3785 invested and we can dig into the data much much further given options provided to us in the System Builder Presentations Tab:

For example, we can determine the best courses, distances, trainers etc. for backing favourites and formulate a selection method around this criteria. Also if you are just reviewing the Proform Racecards in the software and our Race Guides, you can quickly asses the record of the favourite in similar race types easily:

Race Card

Race Guide

So in summary given the right circumstances, backing the favourite does have merit and can be a simple and effective selection strategy.

All you need are the right tools to choose the right favourites!