In a recent blog post, we outlined the merits and benefits of keeping a record of your pre/post-race observations in the form or notes and concluded that:

So, how can we use our meticulously kept after thoughts as a resource for future betting opportunities?

As always, a working example is needed so let’s take a couple from Professional punter Andy Gibson.

Andy’s Dairy Notes and Cheltenham Trial services consists of extensive notes on over 1200 national hunt horses provided via a daily email message and weekly import files compatible with the Proform software and 80 previews and reviews of all the Grade 1 and 2 races throughout the season which culminate in twelve of the major Grade 1 finales at the Cheltenham Festival.

Andy uses his notes stored in the Proform software to formulate his opinion for his big race previews sent to subscribers prior to the race.

The first example is from his conclusion for the recent Fighting Firth at Newcastle on the 28^th November.

My best guess here is that whichever of the three main hold up horses are going best in between the final two flights are likely to have Top Notch as their target horse.

This increases the likelihood of Top Notch shortening up in the market and thereby offering trading potential from his current price of around 5/1.

For those that prefer the more speculative route of the forecast market this scenario would also increase the chances of him finishing in the first two alongside whichever one of the three hold up horses is your preferred option.                                 

Here is the result of the race:

The projected exacta didn’t quite go to plan (it was speculative), however for those who decided to trade Top Notch pre-race or in running on the exchanges; were rewarded with an in running low of 1.26 on Betfair (approx. 95% below his Betfair SP of 6.22).

The next example is from Special Tiara’s race earlier this month in the Tingle Creek at Sandown on the 5^th December:

I have played Special Tiara on the exchanges and will be trading out prior to the race or during it depending on how the markets go.

I have noticed that he has been tipped up quite a bit in the last 24 hours which has resulted in his current exchange price of 4.1 being a little too short to recommend.

Hopefully the run of money will switch elsewhere during today and result in a small bounce in his existing price. He is bound to be ridden positively and has an excellent chance of being bang in contention in between the final two flights and, therefore, of trading shorter than his starting price during the race.

Again those who followed Andy’s advice were rewarded with a trade 85% below Betfair SP (in running low of 1.51)

In both examples, Andy arrived at solid betting conclusions based on observations from his notes allied to the main factors which decide the outcome of the race. A potent combination.

Yes, it’s hard work and for those who are time challenged, you can subscribe to his services and benefit from his considered opinion.

However for those who wish embark on the journey of profiling horses for future reference, here is a short list of things you should consider to get your stated:

• Patterns in a horse’s performance.
• Identify possible future races that would suit the horse.
• Note when the horse has not run up to expectations and try to uncover why.
• Any relevant antidotes from the post-race comments i.e. ‘horse goes well fresh’; ‘likes to dominate’; ‘has only won right-handed’; needs a test of stamina’ etc.
• Any significant post-race trainer quotes i.e. campaigns or target races for the horse or reasons for previous poor performances.

Obviously, this is not an exhaustive list and there is plenty of scope to add your own perspectives, however if you allocated 5 minutes after each race you had a bet in to make notes, this simple activity will give you the edge over  95% of other punters and save significant time when analysing future races.