The Stewards Cup has been run since 1840 and for those that like to utilise race trends in their betting decisions, there are plenty of historical facts and trends to analyse.

However, in this week’s blog post we focus our attention on a useful visual aid which can help you predict how the running of this year’s Stewards’ Cup will unfold.

 

Making sense of the numbers         

Whatever can be expressed in numbers can be expressed in lines (William Playfair: 1805)

At Proform one of the main reasons why we visualise our information in our Race Guides is down to the fact that humans find it easier to identify and compare shapes than recognise patterns and correlations in numbers.

Let me give you an example

 

The table details the draw and pace data for this year’s Stewards’ Cup.

Although some of the numbers are colour coded, it is still difficult to determine any significant patterns without close examination of the numbers.

 

Visualised Draw and Pace Maps.

Using our new web based visual race guides, we can view the numbers from a different perspective:

The pace column is calculated from the horses last three runs, the number is then used to map the horses pace profile on the scale below based on the following key predicted pace style for each runner h = held up, m = midfield, p = prominent, l = led

In previous renewals of the Stewards’ Cup

• Horses that raced prominently [P] have won 11 races from a population of 206 horses and perform 50% above normal expectation.
• Horses that raced held up [H] have won 7 races from a population of 240 horses and perform 26% below normal
• 42 horses have tried to make the running [L], none have won.  

The IV column displays the Impact Value.

The draw bias is derived from the Impact Value; green for positive stall, red for negative stalls, the length of the bar indicates by magnitude of the advantage/disadvantage

An impact value (IV) is an index which is a statistical measure of whether a particular stall is performing better or worse than expected.

A value of 1.00 would indicate that horses drawn in a particular stall, win no fewer or no more than expected i.e. there is no daw bias.

Below 1.00 is indicative of underperformance, possibly due to a draw bias,

A value greater than 1.00 is above expectation suggesting a draw bias which favours horses berthed in that stall. 

Factoring in the pace style statistics and draw bias summarised by the Proform Race Guide, you can now use the visualised data to anticipate how the running of the race will unfold.

 

Do you want to see more?

Every day on our web site we provide a FREE stats and Race Guide.

As well as providing detailed horse racing statistics with profit pointers, our race cards contain horse ratings for each contestant, unique pace information for every runner plus other time saving features to make pre-race analysis easy.

To download today’s Proform Race Guide for the Stewards’ Cup, click on the link here