First run officially in 1839, the Grand National is a handicap steeplechase over 4 miles 3½ furlongs with horses jumping 30 fences over two circuits around Aintree.

The race is the most valuable jump race in Europe and popular amongst many people who do not normally watch or bet on horse racing at other times of the year.

 

Unique Features of the Race

The course over which the race is run – the National Course – is uniquely challenging, featuring much larger fences than those found on conventional National Hunt tracks.

Many of these fences, including Becher’s Brook, The Chair and the Canal Turn have become famous in their own right. These, combined with the extreme distance of the event, create what has been called ‘the ultimate test of horse and rider’.

However the race does leave its mark on the horses. According to our horse racing stats, last year’s contestants on their next run (117) have only won 12 races (10.26%), 13% below expectations.

 

Race Trends and Stats

There are a plenty of numbers flying around the internet for the National covering every conceivable race trend or angle and in our opinion, no other event in the racing calendar gets as much attention from the stat rats, geeks, boffins and computer nerds like us. J

Here is our contribution from two perspectives.

First, noteworthy trends that were identified by our horse racing software:

• Irish bred horses are 12 from 18 renewals.
• Horses aged 9, 10 or 11 are 16 from 18 renewals, 26% higher than normal.
• Horses racing without any form of equipment such as blinkers, cheek pieces etc are 15 from 18 renewals.
• Horses that race prominently in the race are 10 from 18 renewals, 47% better than expected.
• Horses that finished in the top 8 in their previous race are 13 from 18 renewals.
• Horses that ran at Aintree, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Haydock, Kelso, Newcastle or Uttoxeter in their previous race are 16 from 18 races.

From the trends above the following horses figure highly however, we suggest that you should not use the list to supplement your own selection method(s).

Gas Line Boy, Many Clouds, Rocky Creek, Balthazar King, Alvarado, Rebel Rebellion, Night In Milan

 

Secondly (and unique to Proform) here are just a sample of the stats for runners and riders in the race that are statistically significant.

• 3 Unioniste, Jockey Form at Distance (3m+), 117-765 (15.29%)
• 3 Unioniste, Trainer/Jockey Combination Form (Chases), 21-54 (38.89%)
• 6 Balthazar King, Trainer/Jockey Combination Form (Chases), 123-595 (20.67%)
• 8 Pineau De Re, Trainer Angle (Hurdles to Chase), 17-60 (28.33%)
• 15 Night In Milan, Jockey Form at Distance (3m+), 58-366 (15.85%)
• 15 Night In Milan, Trainer/Jockey Combination Form (Chases), 49-240 (20.42
• 18 Cause Of Causes, Jockey Form at Distance (3m+), 56-375 (14.93%)
• 20 Al Co, Trainer Form at Distance (3m+), 147-988 (14.88%)
• 21 Monbeg Dude, Jockey Form at Distance (3m+), 43-316 (13.61%)
• 23 The Rainbow Hunter, Trainer Form at Distance (3m+), 116-768 (15.1%)
• 31 Gas Line Boy, Jockey Form at Distance (3m+), 22-128 (17.19%)
• 34 Owega Star, Jockey Form at Distance (3m+), 19-161 (11.8%)
• 37 Alvarado, Jockey Form at Distance (3m+), 87-645 (13.49%)
• 38 Soll, Trainer Form at Distance (3m+), 132-815 (16.2%)
• 40 Royale Knight, Trainer Angle (Hurdles to Chase), 17-60 (28.33%)
   

Do you want to see more?

Every day on our web site we provide a FREE stats and Race Guide.

As well as providing detailed stats with profit pointers, our race card contains horse racing statistics and horse ratings for each contestant, unique pace information for every runner plus other time saving features to make pre-race analysis easy.

To download today’s Proform Race Guide for the Grand National, click on the link here