The Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase is a Grade 1 National Hunt chase in Great Britain which is open to horses aged five years or older.

Run at Sandown Park over a distance of about 2 miles and 4½ furlongs, the race is for Novice Chasers, and it is scheduled to take place each year in late January or early February.

With an eye on Cheltenham races, in the last 11 years, no winner of the Scilly Isles has gone on to win a race at the Cheltenham festival in March of the same year.

With the wealth of information at our disposal, we analysed our horse race statistics since 1997 using our horse race software to profile each winner to how this year’s runners and riders stack up against the trends.

 

Age

Winners down the years have been aged 5 (one), 6 (six), 7(nine), 9 (two). The sweet spot statistically are 7yo’s who perform 54% above normal.

Race qualifiers for this category are: Splash of Ginge, Grumeti, Champagne West

 

The Market View

This is not a race for upsets and we need to go back to 2002 to find a Scilly Isle Chase winner at double odds in Golden Goal (10/1).

Typically, the majority of winners are found in the first 3 in the betting with the favourite accounting for 10 of the last 18 renewals. 33% above normal expectation.

Race qualifiers for this category are: Irish Saint

 

Pace Previous Race

Since 1997, horses that ran prominently in the Scilly Isles have won on 10 occasions.

Throw in horses that like to led (6 wins) and it’s obvious that horses that are held up are at a distinct disadvantage performing 46% below expectation (2 wins from a population of 28 horses)

With 5 runners in this year’s renewal, the race is likely to be tactical. So too help you visualise how the race could be run, you can identify horses with different running styles easily using our pace maps which can be found in our Proform racecards in addition to our horse ratings.

 

Courses for Scilly Isles Chase Horses

Horses that raced at Cheltenham (8), Kempton (2), Sandown (2) and Newbury (2) in their race prior to the Scilly Isle Chase have won a total of 14 races from 18 renewals with horses from Cheltenham performing 134% higher than statistical expectations.

Race qualifiers for this category are: Champagne West, Splash of Ginge

 

Trainers

Since 2006, horses trained by Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won 7 of the 9 races.

With no representative from the Henderson stable this year, first inclination would suggest that Irish Saint’s chances should be enhanced although we need to go back to 2009 to find the last Pauls Nicholls trained winner of the Scilly Isles (Herecomesthetruth)

Race qualifiers for this category are: Irish Saint