The Clarence House Chase is a Grade 1 National Hunt chase run at Ascot over a distance of about 2 miles and 1 furlong.

As part of his rehabilitation back to Cheltenham greatness, Sprinter Sacre is set to run in this race which he won in 2013.

If anywhere near his best, he should easily assert his class on the rest of the field although the open question remains.

Is Sprinter Sacre the same horse after his heart problem?

In a fascinating race, our racing software has analysed horse race statistics since 1997 and after profiling each winner of the Clarence House, we’ve summarised how Sprinter Sacre measured up against race trends.

 

Breeding

From a population of 46 horses, horses nurtured in France have won 9 of the last 16 and perform 28% above statistical expectation.

Contrast this against GB bred horses that have won 2 races (from a population of 30 horses) but perform 15% below normal.

In this year’s renewal Sprinter Sacre and Twinlight are both French bred, Dodging Bullets is the only horse reared in Great Britain.

 

Age

Winners down the years have been aged 6 (two), 7(two), 8 (eight), 9 (four).

Combined 8yo’s and 9yo’s have won 12 races and perform 54% above normal and yield a profit of £16 to a £1 stake at Betfair starting prices. A return on investment of 27.66%.

Aged 9, Sprinter Sacre in right in the ball park in respect to the category above but so are Dodging Bullets and Twilight.

 

The Market View

We need to go back to 2008 find the last Clarence House winner priced at double figure odds (Tamarinbleu 12/1) and overall the first two in the market combined have produced 11 of the last 16 winners, 16% above normal expectation.

Based on this factor alone, it’s a straight shootout between Sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets.

 

Finishing Position in Recent Race

No complex mathematical model required to figure out that form leading into any race is a significant factor and horses that were victorious in their race prior the Clarence House have won 10 races from a population of 33 horses. A 31% better than expected performance.

As reported, there were valid reasons for Sprinter Sacre’s poor performance 386 days ago and it’s the answer to that question of whether he is back to his old self which makes this race fascinating.

 

Pace in the Race

Historically no particular running style dominates, but with 5 horses declared, the race could unfold into a tactical pace battle.

To help you visualise how the race could be run, you can identify horses with different running styles easily using our pace maps which can be found in our Proform racecards in addition to our horse ratings.

 

Summary

If we were to base our selection on stats alone, then the chances of Sprinter Sacre might be discounted in a blink of an eye.  

However, this is no ordinary horse and he hails from an exceptional stable.

The answer to his wellbeing will be clear to all after the race, but if Sprinter Sacre is back to the force of old, his pre-race ante post price of 2/1 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase will look like an absolute steal!