The King George VI Chase is now the second most prestigious chase in England, surpassed only by the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The event was first run in 1937 and it’s a race for multiple winners with thirteen horses having won it more than once, Desert Orchid has won it four times and Kauto Star has won it five times so can last year’s winner Silviniaco Conti retain his crown?

After analysing our horse race statistics since 1997 and profiling each winner, our horse racing software revealed the following key trends.

 

French Bred

Down the years, horses raised in France have by far the best record in the race with 10 wins from a population of 59 horses (20% above normal expectation).

Next in the tally are Irish bred horses (6) and we have to go back to Teeton Mill (1998) to find a King George winner who was bred in Great Britain.

 

Qualifiers: Al Ferof, Dynaste, Silviniaco Conti, Wonderful Charm

 

Age

In this category, the sweet spot for previous winners are horses aged 7 (7) aged 8 (1) and aged 9 (4) although their combined wins (12) are statistically close to what you would expected given a normal sequence of events.

If we examine the other age groups, three 6yo’s have won the King George; Kicking King, Long Run and Kauto Star. For the elders, horses aged 11 or above have two wins to their name (Edredon Bleu and Kauto Star)

In this year’s King George, Wonderful Charm is the only 6yo in the field and Wishfull Thinking represents the elders. Based on their market prices both have something to prove in this year’s renewal.

 

Qualifiers: Al Ferof, Champagne Fever, Cue Card, Double Ross, Dynaste, Johns Spirit, Menorah, Silviniaco Conti

 

Market Dominance

The first two horses in the market account for 13 wins from 17 and a strategy of backing both the market leaders blind since 1997 yields a small profit thus far.

 

Qualifiers: Silviniaco Conti, Champagne Fever

 

Pace in the Race

Kempton is a categorised as a ‘sharp’ course with fairly tight turns favouring handy types.

Horses who raced prominently in the King George have won on 14 occasions from 17 renewals, 30% above normal.

Contrast this against horses that were raced ‘held’ up who as a population of 62 runners have won on 2 occasions and statistically this result is 57% below normal expectation.

You can identify horses with different running styles easily using our pace map which can be found in our Proform racecards in addition to our horse ratings.

Qualifiers: Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti, Champagne Fever

 

Recent Form

As always, a major prerequisite for any horse competing at National Hunt Grade 1 level is good recent form leading up to the contest; this race is no different.

Since 1997, 16 winners of the King George finished in the first three on their preceding start.

Qualifiers: Al Ferof, Champagne Fever, Dynaste, Johns Spirit, Menorah, Silviniaco Conti, Wishfull Thinking, Wonderful Charm

 

Courses for King George Horses

Horses that raced at Haydock (7) and Cheltenham (2) in their race prior to the King George perform 24% higher than normal.

Qualifiers: Cue Card, Double Ross, Dynaste, Johns Spirit, Menorah, Silviniaco Conti

 

Proform Verdict:

1.  Cue Card / Dynaste

3.  Silviniaco Conti