Given the record of repeat winners down the years, the absence of Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy in this year’s renewal has left the door open for a new name on Tingle Creek roll of honour.

With an eye on the big races next March, previous winners of the Tingle Creek have progressed to achieve greater heights at Cheltenham therefore, this race in all but name is a key festival trial.

The event was first run in 1979 and to give you a different perspective when you review this year’s runners and riders, we have analysed our horse race statistics since 1997 to uncover the following factors.

 

Age

Horses aged 5 (four), 6 (three), 7 (five) as a population have won 12 of the 17 renewals, an 18% better than expected performance. 5yo’s are slightly profitable at Betfair and Starting prices.

Horses aged 8 or over have won 5 of 17 renewals, 36% below normal expectation.

 

Qualifiers: Balder Succes, Dodging Bullets, God's Own, Hinterland, Third Intention, Vukovar, Pepite Rose

 

The Market

The favourite has won 9 races, a 17% better than expected performance.

Horses ranked first three in the market have won 15 of the 17 renewals

Horses who were favourite in their race prior to the Tingle Creek have won 11 of the 17 renewals.

In the last 17 renewals, the biggest priced winner was Direct Route in 1998 at odds of 7/1.

 

Qualifiers (horses ranked in the first 3 in the market LTO): Balder Succes, Dodging Bullets, Hinterland, Oscar Whisky, Third Intention

 

Pace in the Race

Horses who raced prominently in their race prior to the Tingle Creek have won on 12 occasions, 43% higher than what you would expected given a normal sequence of events.

Contrast this against the population of horses that were raced ‘held’ up (44) who have won on 4 occasions. However, statistically this result is 38% below normal expectation.

Below is our pace map for this year’s Tingle Creek which can be found in our Proform racecards along with our horse ratings.

Qualifiers (raced prominent LTO) Dodging Bullets, God's Own, Somersby, Third Intention

 

Days Since Last Run

Our racing software revealed that horses returning from a layoff of between 29-42 days account for 5 of the last 17 races. However looking at the data from a different viewpoint, horses that had no runs in in the month leading up to the Tingle Creek have notched up 12 winners.

 

Qualifiers (no runs in the last month) Balder Succes ,God's Own, Hinterland, Vukovar, Pepite Rose

 

Courses for Tingle Creek Horses

With 5 wins from a population of 20 runners, our horse racing software identified runners that raced at Exeter prior to the Tingle Creek perform 42% better than expected. 

Other notable courses were Aintree (3), Cheltenham (2) and Sandown (2)

 

Qualifiers (Exeter LTO): Balder Succes, God's Own, Hinterland, Pepite Rose

 

Can Nicholls do it again?

Horses saddled by Paul Nicholls have won 8 of the 17 renewals. However his last winner in this race was Master Minded in 2010.

Qualifiers: Dodging Bullets, Hinterland

 

Proform verdict:

1. Balder Succes
2. Dodging Bullets
3. Hinterland